The Guppy Multiple Moving
Average
By Daryl Guppy 2004©
Director
http://www.guppytraders.com/
Author Market Trading Tactics, Better Stock
Trading, Trend Trading
The Guppy Multiple Moving Average
(GMMA) indicator tool is based on the
relationships between groups of moving averages.
Each group of averages in the GMMA provides
insight into the behavior of the two dominant
groups in the market - traders and investors. The
indicator allows the trader to understand the
market relationships shown in the chart and so
select the most appropriate trading methodology
and the best tools. The GMMA is designed to
understand the nature of trend activity on an end
of day, or intraday basis.
The GMMA indicators is packaged with
Metastock as a template, and included as a plug-in
with OmniTrader. It is a feature of many other
charting programs, including NextView, Traders
Essentials, Ezy Charts, Incredible charts and
others.
The inferred activity of traders is
tracked by using a group of short term moving
averages. The traders always lead the change in
trend. Their buying pushes up prices in
anticipation of a trend change. Their activity is
shown by a 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 day group of
exponentially calculated moving averages.
The trend survives only if other
buyers also come into the market. Strong trends
are supported by long term investors. The investor
takes more time to recognize the change in a trend
but he always follows the lead set by traders. We
track the investors' inferred activity by using a
group of long term moving averages. This group is
30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 day exponentially
calculated moving averages.
The GMMA is used in six trading
situations
- Classic trend breaks
- Join the trend
- Using price weakness
- Rally and trend break
- Better exits
- Bubble trading
In these notes we
look at just one of these applications.
CLASSIC TREND BREAKS
The chart shows the classic
application of the GMMA. We start with the
breakout above the straight edge trend line. The
vertical line shows the decision point on the day
of the breakout. We need to be sure this breakout
is for real and likely to continue upwards. After
several months in a downtrend the initial breakout
sometimes fails and develops as shown by the thick
black line.
The GMMA is used to assess the
probability the trend break shown by the straight
edge trend line is genuine. We start by observing
the activity of the short term group. This tells
us what traders are thinking. In area A we see a
compression of the averages. This suggests traders
have reached an agreement on price and value. The
only way to take advantage of this 'cheap' price
is to buy stock. Unfortunately many other short
term traders have reached the same conclusion.
Traders who believe they are missing out on the
opportunity outbid their competitors to ensure
they get a position in the stock at favorable
prices.
The compression of these averages
shows agreement about price and value. The
expansion of the group shows traders are excited
about future prospects of increased value even
though prices are still rising. These traders buy
in anticipation of a trend change. They are
probing for a trend change. We want confirmation
the long term investors are also buying this
confidence.
The long term group of averages at
the decision point show signs of compression and
the beginning of a change in direction. Notice how
quickly the compression starts and the decisive
change in direction. This is despite the longest
average of 60 days which we would normally expect
to lag well behind any trend change. This
compression and change in direction tells us there
is an increased probability the change in trend
direction is for real and sustainable. This
encourages us to buy the stock soon after the
decision point shown.
This compression and eventual
crossover within the long term group takes place
in area B. The trend change is confirmed. The
agreement amongst investors about price and value
cannot last because where there is agreement some
people see opportunity. Many investors missed out
on joining the trend change prior to area B and
now the change is confirmed, they want to get part
of the action. Generally investors move larger
funds than traders so their activity in the market
has a larger impact.
The latecomers can only buy stock if
they outbid their competitors. The stronger the
initial trend, the more pressure to get an early
position. This increased bidding supports the
trend and is shown by the way the long term group
continues to move up, and by the way the long term
group of averages separates. The wider the spread
the more powerful the underlying trend.
Even traders retain faith in this
trend change. The sell-off in area C is not very
strong. The group of short term averages dips
towards the long term group and then bounces away
quickly. The long term group of averages shows
investors take this opportunity to buy stock at
temporarily weakened prices. Although the long
term group falters at this point, the degree of
separation remains relatively constant, confirming
the strength of the emerging trend.
The GMMA identifies a significant
change in the market's opinion about the stock.
The compression of the short term and long term
groups validates the trend break signal generated
by a close above the straight edge trend line.
Using this basic application of the GMMA, the
trader has the confidence necessary to buy at, or
just after the decision points shown on the chart
extract. The GMMA allows the trader to understand
the nature and character of the trend. Armed with
this knowledge we select the most effective
trading tools for each situation.
The variety of GMMA applications is
more fully discussed in Trend Trading. This also
includes applications of intraday trading using
minute settings rather than days. It also examines
the use of GMMA Divergence and Oscillator
analysis. Metastock formulas for these
applications are available from
www.guppytraders.com
Daryl Guppy is a full time
trader and author of Trend Trading, Trading
Tactics and Better Trading. He runs trading
workshops in Australia, Asia, China and the US. He
can be contacted via http://www.guppytraders.com/.